Wimbledon 2015 Tips – Men’s

RECOMMENDED BETMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Andy MurrayTournament Winner3/1Paddy Power
Milos RaonicPlayer to win 2nd Quarter3/1Paddy Power
Nick KyrgiosPlayer to win 2nd Quarter14/1Stan James

With the Grass court season now well under way, and surface titles already claimed for Rafael Nadal (Mercedes Cup), Roger Federer (Halle) and Andy Murray (Queens) in the build up to Wimbledon, attention turns to the third Grand Slam of the year.

Surface

Grass is a unique surface on the ATP Tour, with only a handful of events played on the quickest surface. There are the four main warm-up events, as well as Nottingham, which plays the week before Wimbledon and will be swerved by all the serious candidates.

With grass playing so quick, it favours the biggest serving players, with points won quickly and decisively. It also heavily favours the top players in the seedings – indeed the last ten Wimbledon’s have been won by the top three seeds, and eight of the runners up in that period have come from within the top four seeds.

Favourites

The betting markets reflect that scenario quite accurately, with Novak Djokovic a strong 11/8 favourite, Murray clipped into 11/4 following his win at Queens and Federer into 13/2. Others given a chance include Stanislav Wawrinka at 16/1, Nadal at 14/1 and Kei Nishikori at 33/1.

Novak Djokovic

DjokovicStarting at the top of the betting, top seed Djokovic has been imperious in 2015 – his French Open final defeat to Wawrinka was his first since losing to Federer in the final of the Dubai Championship and only his third reverse all season. He also boasts an impressive 48-10 record on grass and has featured in three of the last four finals here, winning twice. His 93% win record on grass over the past two seasons is also strong, but within these results lies a slight concern about piling into the 11/8 odds available.

Looking over the past two years, Djokovic has secured a 90.5% hold rate when serving, but just a 24.3% break % when facing his opponents serve. Those combine to a total of 114.8%, which don’t stack up well against in-form Andy Murray.

Andy Murray

MurrayMurray has his own slam victory here of course and also won the Olympics on these courts. His 68-10 career grass record compares favourably, while his hold % over the past two years shows him holding marginally less than his Serbian rival (at 87.5%) but breaking far more reliably than anyone else on tour at 30.5%. That gives a combined rating of 118% – over 3% better than Djokovic. His return rate stands out from the crowd by a distance – and its enough to suggest that Paddy Power‘s quote of 3/1 is better than shorter odds on Djokovic.

Roger Federer

FedererRoger Federer boasts similar numbers to Murray over the same period – holding serve in 94.9% of games (the highest on tour of any player) but breaking just 23.8% of the time – a combined score of 118.7%, the best of any player. He is 13/2 with Coral.

The World no. 2 is aiming for an eighth Wimbledon title, twelve years after winning his first, but is not the same player we all know he was (featuring in just 3 of the last 20 Grand Slam finals) and is unlikely to improve upon his record of 17 Grand Slams.

The Rest

Wawrinka holds little appeal at 16/1 despite his recent show at Roland Garros – his grass record since 2008 is just 20-13 and he always struggles on the faster surfaces. While Nadal will have his backers at 14/1, he was beaten by Alexandr Dolgopolov in the 1st round of Queens and the nature of that defeat poses as many question markets as his victory in Stuttgart may have answered.

Tips

For an outright bet at this stage we’ll stick with Murray, but we’ll be keen to assess the draws handed to a number of lower ranked players who could perform well without threatening to win the tournament. Of those, we reckon Nicolas Mahut (winner at Hertogenbosch recently) could be worth looking out for – on top of his recent tournament trophy, he won there is 2013 as well, along with taking down the Newport event Stateside. He has played almost 150 grass matches in his career, which few players can claim, and he’ll definitely be worth watching

The Draw

The draw has been really interesting for the Mens event. Djokovic should have the 1st quarter wrapped up comfortably, and with no bookie longer than 4/11 about the Serb reaching the semi-finals, we’ll move straight down to the second part, which looks hugely competitive.

Stanislav Wawrinka is the justifiable 13/8 favourite, and he’s certainly improved on the surface over the past couple of years, but his historical record doesn’t give us the confidence he should be as short as that when there are some credible threats.

We are going to try dutching two against the field in this section, as we think that the winner of Nick Kyrgios and Milos Raonic could very well progress deep into the tournament.

Indeed the pair met here in 2014, where Raonic won 3-1, but the young Aussie has risen from 144th in the world last year to 29th and he continues to improve. Starting with Kyrgios then, his rise has been meteoric, and his grass record is pretty solid to go with it, having a 20-8 career record on the surface, including wins over Nadal and Gasquet last time at SW19, plus winning the Nottingham Challenger in warm-up for last years event despite having to qualify.

Raonic is a similar player, and he loves the court speeds at Wimbledon. A player with a really strong indoor record (he’s 12-4 against players ranked 10-50 indoors over the past two years) he hasn’t played a awful lot of tennis on grass. His career record on grass is 18-14 which isn’t outstanding, but much of that was created as a youngster, and we should pay more heed to his charge to the semi-finals last season where he was edged out by Roger Federer.

Kyrgios is available at 14/1, while Raonic can be backed at 3/1 to win the quarter.

In the 3rd Quarter we see a likely quarter final between Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal. The pair have shared their past four meetings since the start of the 2014 season, but it’s Murray who holds the upper hand on recent form, and he’s considered a 4/6 to win the section. Having won Queens and then taken a week off, his preparation could hardly have been better and his grass record is superb at 68-10 over his career. Nadal of course won in Stuttgart also, but his 1st round exit from Queens to Alexandr Dolgopolov was really disappointing.

Having lost to both Nadal and Murray in recent weeks, we can’t propose backing Viktor Troicki to win the section, but he could be the man to watch in his other matches having reached the Stuttgart Final, and the semi-finals in Queens.

Finally in the bottom section we’ll resist getting involved again as beating Federer or Berdych looks tough for any of the challengers, but we’ll be keeping a keen eye for value in matches involving Feliciano Lopez and Nicolas Mahut particularly.

RECOMMENDED BETMARKETODDSBOOKMAKERS
Andy MurrayTournament Winner3/1Paddy Power
Milos RaonicPlayer to win 2nd Quarter3/1Paddy Power
Nick KyrgiosPlayer to win 2nd Quarter14/1Stan James